Quick answer

The clean intraday inversion model for news days. Higher-timeframe daily FVG gives you the side, the 5-minute inversion plus 1-minute trigger gives you the entry, the data highs from the news release give you the target. One setup, one entry, walk.

Introduction

Friday was NFP. Most traders treat news days like a coin flip. They get chopped up because they don't have a higher timeframe story to lean on. I treat it like any other day. Find the higher timeframe PD array, wait for the model, pull the trigger once, and walk.

This breakdown covers exactly how I caught the expansion off the NFP release. Higher timeframe daily FVG + 1-minute inversion + clean data-high target. One setup, one entry, one exit.

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"I was basically talking about how I want price to tap into this daily fair value gap on ES and NQ. Even if NFP is bearish I am not going to look for a sell today because I do not want to fade the higher timeframe bias."

”Kevin Dhesi · @dhesi_trades

What was the higher-timeframe bias going into the trade?

Before NFP printed, I had already posted my outlook in Discord. Daily FVG sitting on ES and NQ. My only job was to wait for price to tap that gap and look for a long. The news headline didn't matter. The higher timeframe gravity did.

This is the part most traders skip. They wake up, see the news ticker, and start hunting for direction inside the first 5-minute candle. I had my levels marked the night before. The trade was already pre-made; I just had to wait for the model to print.

Why the Daily FVG Is Non-Negotiable

The daily fair value gap is the gravity of the move. If you fade it, you're betting against the bigger players who are still positioning into that level. On NFP, when the order flow is already messy, fading the higher timeframe is just gambling with extra steps.

Figure 1Price dives into the daily FVG on the NFP release, then expands back up into data highs. The higher TF gap is the magnet.
Dhesi Trades

How does the inversion model look on the lower timeframe?

About 20 minutes before the open, ES and NQ were chopping. Nothing to do. I marked the data highs as buy-side targets. That wick from the prior day's data print is the cleanest external liquidity grab on the chart.

Then ES displaced into a 5-minute fair value gap. That gap was my line in the sand: if it inverted, I was a buyer. While NQ was still consolidating in its own FVG, YM was already ripping. Two of three indices bullish = enough confluence for me to lean.

Why I Took It on Options That Day

The risk-reward was too good to pass up. I bought an $8 SPY contract as a Friday lotto, took the inversion entry, and let it run. Same setup as futures, just leveraged differently. The play is the play; the vehicle is just the vehicle.

Figure 2The inversion model on NFP day: bullish FVG, news-driven violation, then the retest as the entry trigger.
Dhesi Trades

What rules do I trade by on the one-shot-one-kill setup?

One Shot One Kill. Execution Checklist
  1. Mark the higher timeframe PD array the night before. Daily FVG, 4H FVG, previous data highs/lows. No bias built in front of the open.
  2. Never fade the higher timeframe. If we're inside a daily bullish gap, I do not look for shorts that day. Period.
  3. Wait for the news release, let it dive, watch where it lands. Reaction off the HTF gap is your tell.
  4. Drop to 5-min for the inversion. Drop to 1-min for the entry trigger.
  5. Use data highs/lows as targets. That's where external liquidity sits.
  6. Confirm confluence across indices. Two of three bullish (ES/NQ/YM) is enough for me on news days.
  7. Risk a few points, target 25+. Asymmetric or skip.
  8. One setup. One entry. Walk away. Don't re-enter the chop.

When should I skip the one-shot-one-kill setup?

  • No higher timeframe gap. Without a daily or 4H zone in your favor, NFP is just noise. Skip it.
  • You're trying to fade the news. The first move off NFP is a trap if it goes against the daily. Don't be the one taking the other side of smart money.
  • All three indices in lockstep. No SMT, no divergence, no confidence. Pass.
  • Inside the first 5 minutes of release. Spreads are wide, slippage is real, and your stop is meaningless. Wait for the dust to settle.
  • You already took two losses. Two losses and I'm done. The setup will print again Monday.

What's the bottom line on the one-shot-one-kill model?

NFP isn't special. It's a candle. The same model works. Daily FVG bias, lower-timeframe inversion, data-high target. The only thing that changes on news days is the volatility, and volatility is friend not foe when the higher timeframe is in your corner.

Don't fade the gap. Don't force a second entry. Take the one that meets the criteria, run it to the data high, and stop trading. That's what one shot one kill actually means.

The exact playbook above is what I run live on news mornings. One setup, one entry, no chop. Watch it live.

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"Inversion model is such a clean entry on ES. You'd have very slight drawdown, maybe a couple points, and we just continued higher and higher into our data high."

”Kevin Dhesi